The World is Complex, We Disagree with Ourselves or On the Problem of Making Sweeping Generalizations

Last week we endorsed an article on collapsing business models, but having read this must-read critique of it and the journalistic style it applies, one comes to wonder how accurate the analysis really is. When reading articles that tries to make sweeping generalizations just on the basis of a few cases or examples, we must really strive not to be swayed by what is most likely pure dramaturgy and seduction from the author.

A complex system that is very difficult to describe by a single phrase – Photo Credits

Thinking further about  this problem, business books that try to coin new phrases come to mind. Malcom Gladwell is a master of this art writing books such as “The Tipping Point” and “Outliers”.  Be careful when reading this, it is most probably oversimplifying the world, making you less wise than you were prior to reading it while simultaneously leaving you with the impression that you are more intelligent and knowledgeable.  Or as Steven Pinker has described his style: “cherry-picked anecdotes, post-hoc sophistry and false dichotomies”

Another example that comes to mind, is the now well established ‘truth’ of  The Long Tail, proposed by Chris Anderson of the Wire. It argues that as the internet and communication technology decreases the acquisition costs of niche products, less people will buy ’superhits’. Instead a larger amount of sales will be made up of many low-volume products that were simply to costly to keep in stock earlier. Anita Elberse of Harvard Business School and several other studies question whether this is the case, empirically-speaking. This it not saying the Long Tail is non-existent – it is an effect in some markets, but not in all. A networked and complex society can just as easily channel everyone into reading and watching all the same webpages and videos. Think about how aggregator sites function, they only show you the most popular articles within a category with little room for long tails.

To conclude we again invoke our Pledge to our Readers. Sweeping generalizations are seldomly right. The world is complex and truth or objectivity – in the words of Nietsche – can only be found by viewing reality from as many angles as possible.