Category — Conjectures

The opening session today in the ongoing OECD Forum 2010 was on the future of capitalism, where economic historian Anatole Kaletsky argued that “we’re entering a new period of pragmatism, when ideology will give way to a more “common sense” approach.” Arguably, this is not such a radical notion; the financial crisis has shown in a dramatic way that there have been some serious cracks in what has commonly been accepted as “good” economic policy. It is easy to blame greed and carelessness in the financial sector, but that hardly goes to the heart of the problem. At the end of the day, even if the greed and carelessness of a few “evil bankers” really is to blame, policy has to change if the economic structures have been conducive to making it cause despair for millions of people.

Aside from highlighting dysfunctional economic structures and the need for reform, a very immediate consequence of the crisis is that Governments have been [Read more →]

Back in January my dear co-author Jørund wrote a short piece on  the future prospects of the Norwegian krone, whereby Evolution-Revolution agreed with Credit Suisse’s prediction that the krone was on its way up (while, admittedly, making ourselves guilty of blogger-journalism-commentator hedging dicussed in this post by the eminent Baruch at Ultimi Barbarorum). Since then, the Norwegian Krone has, indeed, strengthened a bit vis-a-vis both Euro, Pound, and Dollar (although as Nassim Taleb would be quick to point out, this might have been completely random). Nevertheless, the krone still has a way up to go, even more so than it did in January.

In particular, three factors underlie this prognosis: [Read more →]

The United States is not the only place where offshore drilling has been on the political agenda during the last years. In Norway, where the offshore oil and gas industry is a significant part of the economy, making Norway the third largest oil exporter in the world, there has been debate about opening up scenic coastal areas of Lofoten and Vesterålen for offshore drilling. The Northern Norwegian coastal archipelagos feature amazingly scenic nature complete with fjords and mountains, the world’s largest population of cod along with a thriving fishing industry, and whether possible drilling in the area should be allowed to commence has already been the subject of intense debate.

Still, Norway’s Labor Party led coalition government is arguably leaning towards opening up the area for oil and gas investments, in spite of vocal protests from its Socialist Left Party members. It has certainly been  [Read more →]

Last week we endorsed an article on collapsing business models, but having read this must-read critique of it and the journalistic style it applies, one comes to wonder how accurate the analysis really is. When reading articles that tries to make sweeping generalizations just on the basis of a few cases or examples, we must really strive not to be swayed by what is most likely pure dramaturgy and seduction from the author.

A complex system that is very difficult to describe by a single phrase – Photo Credits

Thinking further about  this problem, business books that try to coin new phrases come to mind. Malcom Gladwell is a master of this art writing books such as “The Tipping Point” and “Outliers”.  Be careful when reading this, [Read more →]

I was recently reading some older posts on Andrew Clavell’s Financial Crookery, and came across a post from early January on the decision made by Iceland’s President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson to let the so-called Icesave bill (with which Iceland agrees to pay back Britain and the Netherlands the deposits made by its citizens that were lost by its banks) be subject to a popular referendum that it surely would not survive. It didn’t, on March 6th 93% of voters wanted it dead, compared to a diminutive 1,6% who wanted Iceland to [Read more →]

A saying goes that “acceptable unemployment is defined as the level at which the Government economist writing the report still has a job.” Certainly, it can be argued that in most countries, economists tend to be quite insulated from the consequences of the policies they propose. Apparently, this is not the case in North Korea. After a major currency reform last year failed completely, the high-level economist Pak Nam Gi, former finance director for the North Korean “Worker’s Party”, was convicted of treason for “ruining the national economy as the son of a big landlord who infiltrated the ranks of revolutionaries” and executed by firing squad.

The policy environment leading the execution of the North Korean economist, who was most likely a scapegoat, is hardly one that should be emulated. However, I can’t help but think about how the U.S. or Europe might have looked in the wake of the financial crisis if a more North Korean approach had been taken during the witch-hunt that followed it (and is still ongoing).  Could you charge Richard Fuld with treason for over-leveraging, or Eugene Fama for trying to make people think that capital markets are efficient?. Certainly one would expect the emergence of a slightly more risk-averse financial sector.

For a more realistic discussion about discretionary power being given to regulators, check out The Epicurean Dealmaker’s recent post about fire alarms, strong men, and big axes.

Thanks goes to loyal Evolution-Revolution reader and good friend Jan Petter Janssen, creator of Developing Trader, for the tip about Pak Nam Gi.

By Stephan Andreas Jensen

Above: “I am *this* much more awesome than all of you guys!”
Picture from unattributable.com

Attending a small rock concert this weekend (a good one, with the Estonian band Mild), I was struck by tremendous amount of unabashed ego displayed by the lead singer of the band. Now, in the case of an aspiring rock star, this is of course not a bad thing. In fact, I would argue that a big, proud, and unapologetic ego is mostly a very good thing for a most live performers, especially [Read more →]

The Future State of Humanity? Photo by Aaron Haussman

Friedrich Georg Jünger, translator of the Iliad to the German and expert on Pre-Socratic philosophy has written one of the most powerful critiques of technology named “Failure of Technology: Perfection without Purpose.” I will present some of his most important criticisms of technological progress in general and their relevance for the technological development we are seeing today.

For better or worse, it is certain that technological development is truly changing our society and the way we live. [Read more →]

Above: Nanotech is coming to get you

One of the first definitions of Economics I came across in my life was “the study of scarce resources and unlimited wants.” That is, how choices are made with regards to which of the unlimited wants are to be met and not, or in other words, how resources are allocated. Here, markets come in as one of many possible mechanisms for making such choices socially.

In the context of Technology Governance, another way of understanding economics appears. That is, in recognizing that in the presence of innovation and changing technology, economic systems are not static, the extent to which resources are scarce depends on our ability to produce. As such, economics in this context can be better described as the study of how humans mitigate scarcity of resources by means of technology. Here, the core questions do not so much relate to allocation of scarce resources but to our changing capacity to make available those resources.

However, technology does not only change which resources or goods are available in which quantities, they also strongly influence the market (or other) mechanisms by which they get distributed. [Read more →]

I recently read Siddharta by Hermann Hesse,  a wonderful book set in ancient India about a young man’s search for understanding and inner peace. Amongst other profoundities, the book also contains some interesting insights on trading and investment. After a thorough brahmin education, followed by three years of life as an ascetic sadhu, the young Siddharta becomes an apprentice under a rich merchant. Only knowing how to, according to himself, think, wait, and fast, he quickly becomes a highly successful and very rich merchant. Importantly, he does this not by using greed or a hunger for “success” as a motivation, but rather by means of cool detachment. Hesse, of course, describes this far more eloquently than I could ever hope to:

“This Brahmin,” [the master merchant Kamaswami] said to a friend, “is not a proper merchant and will never be one; never is his heart passionately engaged in our transactions. But he has the secret of those to whom success comes of ts own accors, be it that he was born under a lucky star, be it magic, be it something he learned among the Samanas. He seems only to be playing at doing business. Never do the transactions have any real effect on him; never are they his master; never does he fear failure or worry over a loss.”

There is an interesting connection here, of course, to modern “practical investment” literature, in which the virtues of emotional control and self discipline are frequently emphasized as being of critical importance to success. The lesson to be drawn from Hesse, then, is perhaps that one possibly extremely effective way of achieving this just this is to not care very much about money – in a Siddhartian sense, “rise above” is perhaps a more appropriate choice of words.

It might not be so easy, though. In Hesse’s work,  Siddhartas spirituality is almost completely killed off by many years of hedonism and financial success – and he becomes so emotionally and philosophically tortured that he abandons his life as a wealthy merchant and almost commits suicide.

By Stephan Andreas Jensen